I've been listening - intently - to all the news coming across concerning Covid 19 ... and I am suspicious of so much of what I hear and read..........
BUT there are 3 biggies.......
1) Covid 19 will 'disappear' or die (depending on who is talking) once the warm weather gets here..............
What about all the warm countries that have Covid 19 - like the Arab countries or Thailand or Singapore or Africa?
2) Covid 19 can't live without a human host for very long .........
well then why doesn't it just disappear or die if we all isolate for 2 weeks?? OR why are they talking about a 2nd wave in the Fall
3) I am confused by all the people making their own masks out of scarves... tshirts.. socks... and thinking they will be more protected.
Why do people think that homemade masks will do anything to protect them ... or the people around them.... when health professionals wearing the best of the best PPE are coming down with Covid 19???
These are just some of things that make me go 'hummmmmm'
Here’s my laymen’s take on these questions.
ReplyDelete1. I haven’t really heard anyone with any scientific authority state this with any confidence. Some politicians have seized on it to exploit people’s hope for a quick exit, but the actual scientists and doctors I’ve heard discussing it have been much more conservative. We still don’t know a ton about this virus and it’s possible it could have a seasonal component like flu, if it is less robust in hotter weather. Most things I’ve read recently seem to point to it NOT being seasonal that way, but we really won’t know for sure until summer. But diseases that are seasonal aren’t just about how well the virus survives or spreads in certain temperatures... it also has a lot to do with how human behavior changes based on the weather.
2. Well to start, the incubation period of the novel Coronavirus is still kind of a guess. We don’t know for sure that people are only contagious for 14 days, that’s just kind of the model we’re running with. That said, the MAIN reason 2 weeks of isolation doesn’t knock it out entirely is that it’s impossible... no one is fully self isolating right now. We are minimizing direct contact as much as possible, but essential workers still have to go to work, sick people still need to go to the hospital, pregnant women still have to have babies, people still need groceries, people in nursing homes still need care, the children of emergency workers still need watching, and so on and so on. In a theoretical model, we probably COULD knock it out with a few weeks of zero contact, but zero contact isn’t realistic. As for a second wave, that would work the same way it does with influenza... it’s not that cases would go away all summer, there would just be FEWER cases with the warm weather, but it would continue to spread and move from host to host at a slower pace, and then resume faster spread when whether forced people back inside in closer quarters (and when temperatures produced more optimal conditions for the virus if that were a thing).
3. You’re a mom, so I know it’s inevitable that at some point you’ve had a small child sneeze directly into your face, right? Don’t you wish you’d been wearing a scarf when that happened? Or that your child had sneezed into his/her elbow? 😂 The PRIMARY reason masks are now being recommended universally is to make it less likely that the wearer will spread the disease if they are infected without knowing. Doctors wear surgical masks to protect the patient... not themselves. If everyone wears some kind of barrier, it reduces the likelihood that the virus will spread. A homemade mask or bandana isn’t as effective as a surgical mask, but neither is covering your mouth when you cough. A person who coughs into their sleeve is still putting virus into the air, but much LESS virus than if you cough in someone’s face.
That said, covering your face probably does provide some protection to the wearer as well, even though it’s not the same level if protection as appropriate medical equipment. It’s a physical barrier, it makes it less likely that larger droplets will be prevented from reaching you, even thought the holes in the material are large enough to allow passage of microscopic particles. People going to the grocery store are not stuck in a room with infected people as they are being intubated, they’re not continually surrounded by people at their sickest coughing out virus. A cloth mask may provide some protection, and provides a little more protection if everyone is wearing them.
I think that the biggest problem with COVID 19 is that it's a novel virus, it is new. It has only been infecting human beings since December. This means that even the best of the best of the guys and gals in white lab coats have not had the time to study it properly. Even the most informed and most inteligent experts are having to form some of their oppinions on some of the aspects of the virus on "Best educated guess". But this is still a lot better than a lot of the popularoists, who base their oppinion on "Best BS propaganda that suits my political agenda".
ReplyDeleteI think the best advice that I can give you right now is keep following fondles blog. I don't think that she is perfect and she might get the odd thing wrong but it seems to me that she is doing a better job of seperating the advice worth listening to and the BS than most of the mainstream media sources that I am exposed to. But rememmber no one really knows it all right now.
As to your questions
For number three, from what I have heard and read I pretty much agree with Xen and see no point in saying the same thing twice.
For number two, it seems that it is established knowlege that most viruses can last between 2 hours and 2 weeks outside of their host, depending on the particular virus. The number I see repeated the most by the scientists for COVID 19 is about 3 days but even the experts are not totally sure about that yet.
For number one, No one really knows and there is not enough time to research it. We will find out when summer comes a long time befor reliable resarch results on this could possibly be available. What Xen said about human behavour and cimate is a thing that I have seen a lot over the years and looks pretty believable to me.
Please excuse any mis spelings and typos. Spell checker does not seem to be working on Fire Fox today (I have checked, it is turned on) and I can't spell for toffee.
Prefectdt
Some great comments above. There is so much misinformation out there, and we are still learning about covid. I am taking anything not from an authorative source with a healthy degree of skepticism.
ReplyDeleteHugs
Roz
I've been listening to Dr John Campbell, who is a PhD and Nurse/Teacher in the UK who does daily updates on his youtube channel (https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching). He's been doing these updates since I think January, possibly earlier, although he's had the channel longer to teach students, but he's also very good at breaking down complex scientific papers for smart but non-medical people like us. I definietly recommend watching him. He talks a lot about the rationale behind masks, about the issue with covid-19 surviving on surfaces, and the whole warm weather thing (you're right to go ummm about that one - it won't). I'm not going to repeat a lot of what your other two commentators have said, but if you do want reliable information on ... as much as is known at present about the virus and protection, then I definietly recommend that channel. His updates are worldwide by the way.
ReplyDeleteGood luck, hope you stay safe!
keth
Hi, MS,
ReplyDeleteYes, I'd agree with the above, scary times, but there is good advice above. As a momma of many kids and a husband who's an essential worker, I find myself constantly debating myself about your concerns above. Sending my love and prayers that you will find peace even in this situation.
--Baker